Governments have pledged vast areas for new forests, but much of this land may be unsuitable.
A major new study finds that the potential of planting trees to fight climate change has been drastically overstated. The research calculates that only 389 million hectares of land are truly suitable for new forests worldwide. If all this land were planted, it would absorb just 40 billion tonnes of carbon by 2050, only slightly more than one year of global fossil fuel emissions, showing that tree planting is nowhere near enough to meet climate goals on its own.
The study reveals a large gap between government pledges and reality, especially in Africa. Countries like Ethiopia have pledged far more land for tree planting than is ecologically suitable, often including natural grasslands and savannas. Planting trees in these ecosystems is unlikely to succeed and risks damaging unique biodiversity, highlighting that not all land is meant for forests.
The researchers conclude that while tree planting can help, it must complement rather than replace the urgent need to cut fossil fuel emissions. Forestation efforts should be prioritized in countries with wet tropical climates like Brazil and India for the greatest benefit. The key lesson is that better science based guidelines are needed to ensure trees are planted where they will actually thrive, and that rapid emissions cuts must remain the top priority.
